" The project we propose here focuses directly on modeling the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The strategy we use is based on a mix of parametric and non-parametric models with the direct purpose of making short-term predictions of the immediate effects of the virus, as well medium-term forecasts of the evolution of the virus in the population. It provides new methodological aspects that combine the flexibility of non and semi-parametric statistical models with deterministic epidemiological models in order to build new, better statistical models that take into account this information regarding the life of the virus in the population. "
Funding: Planning on applying for the "Projets Exceptionnels de Recherche" at FNRS for mid-may.
Publication References: Not yet available
Comment: Some of the models proposed in the project have been implemented in an app for usage of the general public: https://eugenpircalabelu.shinyapps.io/covid19-forecasting/ And some intermediary reporting has been made available here: https://uclouvain.be/en/research-institutes/lidam/isba/news/modeling-the-evolution-of-the-covid-19-virus-in-belgium.html
Eugen Pircalabelu, Professor